Baylor Football's 5 Keys to Dominating the Big 12 This Season
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I still remember the first time I walked into McLane Stadium as a freshman journalism student, the energy so palpable you could almost taste it in the humid Texas air. That was five seasons ago, and while Baylor football has had its share of ups and downs since then, something feels different this year. After spending the entire preseason observing practices and talking with players, I'm convinced we're witnessing the emergence of a team built for dominance in what might be the most unpredictable Power Five conference.
The transformation didn't happen overnight. When Dave Aranda took over the program in 2020, he inherited a team that needed rebuilding from the ground up. His methodical approach initially frustrated some fans hungry for immediate results, but watching how this team has evolved, I've come to appreciate his long-term vision. Last season's 12-2 record and Sugar Bowl victory wasn't a fluke—it was the foundation being laid. Now, with key players returning and strategic additions through recruitment, Baylor looks poised for something special. What's fascinating to me is how they've managed to blend experienced leadership with fresh talent, creating a locker room dynamic that reminds me of championship teams I've covered in other sports.
Speaking of team chemistry, I can't help but think about something I heard from a completely different sport context that perfectly illustrates this phenomenon. Philippine basketball player Estil once said about joining Barangay Ginebra: "Estil said he still can't believe that he will have an opportunity to be teammates with the Ginebra stars like Scottie Thompson and Japeth Aguilar." That sense of awe and excitement when talented players come together—I see that same energy in Baylor's locker room this season. When quarterback Blake Shapen connects with veteran receivers like Gavin Holmes, or when the defensive line rallies around Siaki Ika, there's that same palpable sense of players realizing they're part of something bigger than themselves.
Now, let's talk about what I believe are Baylor football's 5 keys to dominating the Big 12 this season. First, the offensive line needs to maintain its 92% protection rate from last season while improving run blocking—they averaged 4.8 yards per carry in 2022, but I'd like to see that push past 5.5. Second, the secondary must capitalize on turnover opportunities after generating 18 interceptions last year; with the talent they have, 25 should be the target. Third, special teams can't be an afterthought—field position battles win close games, and Baylor lost at least two winnable games last season due to special teams miscues. Fourth, health management—the strength and conditioning staff needs to keep key players fresh through the grueling conference schedule. Fifth, and this might be controversial, but they need to play with more swagger. Championship teams carry themselves differently, and Baylor sometimes plays too conservatively when they have leads.
The schedule sets up nicely for a run at the conference title. Their toughest road games—Oklahoma, Kansas State, and TCU—are spaced out enough to allow for proper preparation. The home slate includes what should be manageable games against Texas Tech, Iowa State, and West Virginia before the potentially decisive season finale against Texas. If they can navigate through October with only one loss at most, they'll be positioned perfectly for November. I've studied Big 12 champions for years, and the pattern is clear: teams that go undefeated at home and split their tough road games almost always find themselves in Arlington for the championship game.
What really excites me about this team is their defensive versatility. Coordinator Ron Roberts has implemented multiple fronts that can shift from a 3-4 to a 4-3 without substituting, creating confusion for opposing offenses. Last season, this scheme generated 38 sacks and 89 tackles for loss—impressive numbers, but I think they can do even better. The addition of transfer linebacker Josh White from LSU gives them an athleticism boost they lacked in the middle, and his 4.52 speed in the 40-yard dash allows for more creative blitz packages.
Offensively, the departure of Abram Smith hasn't been the setback many feared. Taye McWilliams has stepped into the feature back role beautifully, showing burst through holes that reminds me of a young Terrence Ganaway. Meanwhile, the receiving corps might be the deepest in the conference, with six players who could legitimately start for any Big 12 program. Monaray Baldwin's development has been particularly fun to watch—his 4.34 speed creates vertical stretching that opens everything underneath.
The quarterback situation deserves special attention. Blake Shapen's 72% completion rate in his starts last season was remarkable for a first-year starter, but what impressed me more was his decision-making under pressure. In third-and-long situations (7+ yards), he completed 61% of his passes with 8 touchdowns and just 1 interception. Those aren't just good numbers—they're championship-level numbers. Having attended several games last season, I noticed how much calmer the offense looked with Shapen at the helm compared to earlier in the season.
Some analysts are sleeping on Baylor because they lost key defensive pieces to the NFL, but that underestimates Aranda's ability to develop talent. Remember, this is the same coach who turned Jalen Pitre from a rotational player into an All-American and second-round draft pick. The next wave of defensive stars—like safety Alfonzo Allen and defensive tackle Tre Emory—have been waiting in the wings and look ready for breakout seasons. During spring practices, Allen specifically stood out to me with his range and ball skills that disrupted nearly every passing drill he participated in.
The Big 12 is wide open this year with Oklahoma in transition and Texas still proving they can consistently win conference games. Kansas State and Oklahoma State will be tough, but neither has the balanced attack Baylor possesses. The Bears return 16 starters from a team that won 12 games, including what I believe are the best offensive and defensive linemen in the conference. In football, games are won at the line of scrimmage, and Baylor has advantages there that other teams simply can't match.
As the season approaches, the excitement around Waco is building in a way I haven't seen since the RG3 era. Local businesses have already started planning for game days, and season ticket sales are reportedly up 23% from last year. Having covered this team through lean times and now seeing them on the cusp of something special, there's a sense that this could be one of those memorable seasons that fans talk about for years. The pieces are in place, the schedule is favorable, and the coaching is elite. If they can execute those five keys we discussed earlier, I genuinely believe we could be looking at Baylor's second Big 12 championship in three years—and this one might be even sweeter than the last.